I was talking to a friend of mine this week about my column and he had a word of advice for me: “Don’t start your column out with, ‘Well….that was rough.'” Despite my attempt to be honest (and luckily, I haven’t had to open up my column with that line in a few weeks), he was right. So even after a decent week, let’s start things off different to try and inspire some confidence in my picks.
What my friend (we’ll call him Tuck) also said to me was that I should go back and see how I’ve done with my picks had I been betting on all of them. So I did. Obviously the teasers and moneyline parlays have been rough. I’ve only hit one teaser and zero parlays, but I’m not expecting to make a ton of money off those. They’re tough to hit, especially the parlays, which you can see with the payouts are low risk high reward bets. However, with my five star bets, had you been betting $20 on all of them all year, you would be up around $65, and if you had been betting $100 for each one, you would be up around $350. Of course, there was a point in the beginning where you would have been in the red when I was still getting the feel of the NFL this year and betting in general. But I know the league and the lines better now, as evident by my recent hot streak. Therefore, it wouldn’t be a bad idea to start betting on me.
Five Star Bets
Patriots (+3) over PACKERS, Confidence Rating: 4.5/5
Keep giving Belichick and Brady points. I’ll keep taking them. Neither of these teams are in a particularly great spot. Both coming off wins and probably won’t be looking past these game, so I like the motivation factor from the points here, as well as the fact that the Patriots are the better team. Both of these teams have been hot and dominating opponents left and right, but let’s look closer at that. In their past three, the Pats have blown out Denver, Indy, and Detroit. Green Bay has blown out the Bears, Eagles, and beat the Vikings close. New England lost to two very good and underrated teams in Miami and Kansas City. Green Bay got blown out by 4-7 New Orleans. Give me Belichick over McCarthy and give me the Pats.
Bet $20, win $19.04; Bet $100, win $95.23
CHIEFS (+2) over Broncos, Confidence Rating: 4.5/5
This line is disrespectful to the Kansas City crowd at Arrowhead. The Chiefs clearly looked past the Raiders to this game, having ten days to prepare. The Broncos might be exhausted after that win over Miami. Remember when St. Louis beat Denver? They did it with a dominant pass rush…something the Chiefs have. Of course, if the Broncos get an early lead here, it could be over quick. But the fans are going to be going absolutely nuts because if the Chiefs lose here, their division hopes are likely over. Kansas City is 9-2 ATS this year as well, and we’ve seen that the Broncos are vulnerable, especially the offensive line.
Bet $20, win $18.18; Bet $100, win $90.90
Redskins (+16) over COLTS, Confidence Rating: 4/5
But I thought you said never bet against Andrew Luck??? I know what I said, but this teased line is great value for Washington. First off, Robert Griffin III has finally been benched. RG3 has been very bad, the team doesn’t like him and doesn’t want to play for him, and he isn’t a good fit in Jay Gruden’s offense. Enter Colt McCoy, who qualifies for the latter two points even though he’s not very good. There’s some talent on this Washington offense and the pass rush can make Luck uncomfortable. Indy looks like they probably have the 3 or 4 seed wrapped up, and they might not care too much about this one.
JAGUARS (+9) over Giants, Confidence Rating: 4/5
Sorry Giants fans, but after that loss to the Cowboys, it seems like your season is truly over. And I don’t just mean mathematically eliminated from the playoffs, but the players might have quit by now. I was at the game (OBJ…wow) and I heard a Giants fan telling a Cowboys fan, “This is our Super Bowl.” That was absolutely right. The Giants tried so hard in this game and still couldn’t win. They’ll come out flat and defeated against a Jacksonville team that has a decent enough defense to cover this teased line. As long as Blake Bortles doesn’t screw it up, I think the Jags got this one.
Dolphins (-1) over JETS, Confidence Rating: 4.5/5
I think it’s time to finally give up on the Jets. It seems more evident by the day that Rex Ryan, John Idzik, or both will be gone after this season. Now, the ferocious Dolphins defense gets Geno Smith this week. This won’t end well. Miami needs this game bad to stay alive in the playoff hunt, they’re good on the road, and teams playing in their second straight road game have a good trend of covering. Sure, the Jets might not have given up and may want to play spoiler, but I don’t see any way Miami loses this game.
Two-team teaser: Bet $20, win $18.18; Bet $100, win $90.90
Three-team teaser: Bet $20, win $32; Bet $100, win $160
FALCONS over Cardinals, JAGUARS over Giants, CHIEFS over Broncos, Patriots over PACKERS
This game is just fishy to me. The line opened up at Arizona -3. How are the Cardinals, the team with the best record in the NFC and coming off a loss, only 3 point favorites??? It makes me feel like Vegas knows something that we don’t, similarly to the Steelers-Jets line from a few weeks ago. I’ll double up on those outlandish bets and take Atlanta and the fish…Like I said, I think the Giants have quit. Jacksonville is bound to win another game, and they’re actually playing for something: the development of Blake Bortles…I like Kansas City to make this AFC West race a true race by “upsetting” the Broncos like I mentioned above…If they beat the Pack, another top team, the Patriots will truly establish themselves as the best team in the NFL.
Bet $5, win $125.03; Bet $10, win $250.06; Bet $20, win $500.12