Coming back down to earth, I was still able to nail both of my Five Star Bets, but I only hit one teaser and two moneylines. It was a crazy week in football, and it honestly seems like it’s just going to get crazier. The NFL is the greatest drama on television. You couldn’t script it better, combining the perfect amount of unpredictability, normalness, and true lack of control by anyone besides the players and their physical and mental abilities.
With that being said, buckle up ladies and gentlemen. We’re at Week 12, meaning there are six games left for teams to prove their worth and make it into the postseason. It also means fantasy football playoffs are coming up. We’re in the nitty gritty of it all, and it’s only going to get better from here. With that, let’s dive in.
Five Star Bets
Jets (+4.5) over BILLS, Confidence Rating: 4.5/5
Let’s start things off with the first snow bowl of the year. People are currently being asked to work for $10 an hour and free game tickets to dig out the Bills’ stadium from 10 feet of snow. Keep in mind, it’s currently November 20th. All weather craziness aside, the brutal weather conditions should favor a Jets team that likes to ground and pound with Chris Ivory. New York is coming off a bye and is fighting for Rex Ryan (as it always does), while the Bills may be a little flat coming off that Miami loss that very well may have decided their season. I like the Jets to get revenge here. Let’s hope it doesn’t backfire to trust them again.
Bet $20, win $18.18; Bet $100, win $90.90
COLTS (-14) over Jaguars, Confidence Rating: 4.5/5
Despite the high line, the Colts are in a very nice spot, so this is a no-brainer. Andrew Luck is 11-1 ATS coming off a loss, and he has generally destroyed the Jags, no matter the situation. I think Indy hears the Texans creeping up the standings, and they’ll be focused to get back on track after a blowout loss, especially with a meaningless game against Washington coming up next week. Sometimes, the lines and football are easy. The Colts are much better than Jacksonville. They should blow them out. Don’t overthink this one.
Bet $20, win $18.18; Bet $100, win $90.90
49ERS (-3) over Redskins, Confidence Rating: 4.5/5
The sky is falling in Washington, and Robert Griffin III is at the center of it all. Griffin has been playing poorly, criticizing his teammates, and accused by coaches of not being a hard worker. This seems crazy for the guy who was considered by some to be better than Andrew Luck just two years ago. It’s funny how things change. Griffin’s inefficiency at the quarterback position is bad enough, but the cancer he has supposedly brought to this locker room is worse. Meanwhile, in San Francisco, while things aren’t always rainbows and butterflies with Jim Harbaugh, he’ll have his team ready to go in a must-win game. The 49ers are a much better team, and due to the Skins seeming to have quit, I’ve got enough confidence in this teased line, regardless of not big spot advantages.
Buccaneers (+11.5) over BEARS, Confidence Rating: 4/5
The 2-8 Bucs are only two games out of the division lead, and with a rejuvenated defense, Josh McCown playing competent, and Lovie Smith starting to figure things out, this team may not be as poisonous as we thought. They’re still bad however, but they get a Bears defense that’s arguably the worst in the league. Mike Evans is going to have a field day. After Chicago beat Minnesota, it saved the Bears’ season, if only for a moment. They head to Detroit on Thanksgiving, a game they will likely be more concerned about than this one. Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffery, and Matt Forte have the ability to rediscover this explosive offense in a second, but I can’t imagine Chicago covering a double-digit line here.
SEAHAWKS (-0.5) over Cardinals, Confidence Rating: 4/5
Going into Seattle, this may finally be the week that Arizona’s luck runs out. Everyone has fully bought into the Cardinals and even Drew Stanton, but I’m not so sure yet. The Seahawks are banged up and not as good as they used to be, but with their season more or less on the line, the 12th man will revert back to last year’s form. I know the Hawks have the Niners on Thanksgiving, but this game will be their bigger focus, as they go up against the divisional leaders. The Cardinals have been phenomenal ATS this year, but there’s no doubt that some luck has attributed to that. That’s not to say they’re not good, just not as perfect as the media has made them out to be.
Two-team teaser: Bet $20, win $18.18; Bet $100, win $90.90
Three-team teaser: Bet $20, win $32; Bet $100, win $160
RAIDERS over Chiefs, Rams over CHARGERS, GIANTS over Cowboys, Ravens over SAINTS
If there’s ever a time for the boys in black to win a game, this is it. They’re at home, facing a Chiefs team that just came off a big win over Seattle and is much more concerned about hosting Denver this week, and they may even finally unleash Latavius Murray — a good sign that Oakland might start to play their best players…San Diego hasn’t looked right for a long time, while St. Louis has never looked more right. This isn’t about the spot, this is just a hunch that the Rams pass rush makes life miserable for Phillip Rivers…This is tough because this is a game the Cowboys really need to have and they’re the better team coming off a bye, but it wouldn’t shock me to see the Giants play spoiler. Dallas is locked in on its Thanksgiving matchup with Philadelphia, while New York might not have quit just yet…No way the Saints lose three in a row at home, right? Wrong. It seems that the Superdome advantage isn’t what we thought it was, and with Baltimore, the better team, coming off a bye, I expect the Ravens to hand the Saints their third straight home loss.
Bet $5, win $347.53; Bet $10, win $695.07; Bet $20, win $1,390.14