Well that was…not good. If it wasn’t worse enough that my Five Star Bets were both terribly wrong and I missed on two of my three teasers, I endorsed Andrew Luck and the Colts as much as I possibly could. And you all know what happened. Indianapolis got absolutely stomped on by the Steelers. It was not a good week.
So maybe I’m bad luck? The Bears, who I was so confident in and I thought I knew, got annihilated by New England. I was so wrong on the two games I had the most faith in. But the truth is, really weird things happen in the NFL that you just can’t prepare for sometimes. Remember when the Titans blew out the Chiefs in Arrowhead Week 1? Yeah. I just happened to hit a parlay of awfulness this week. So the best thing I can do is stay the course and know that the only way to go is up.
Five Star Bets
Colts (-3.5) over GIANTS, Confidence Rating: 4/5
This is a tough week for the lines, but maybe that’s just what I need to turn it around. And I start, once again, with my good pal Andrew Luck. I mentioned the Titans-Chiefs game in my intro. Maybe this was the Colts’ mulligan. They’re still a very good team with a very good track record that ran into a Steelers’ offense with Roethlisberger on fire and a bunch of legit playmakers going off. The Colts should bounce back, and I expect them to get on track before their bye. I know the Giants are coming off a bye and have had a lot to mull over after two divisional blowout losses. But they’re clearly inferior to Indianapolis, and with no Victor Cruz and maybe no Rashad Jennings, the thoughts of a rejuvenated Giants offense may not fully come to fruition. I threw all my faith in Luck and got burned. I can’t be that wrong twice in a row, right?
Bet $20, win $18.18; Bet $100; win $90.90
PANTHERS (+2.5) over Saints, Confidence Rating: 4/5
I’m a little reluctant to pick this game, especially since it’s on Thursday night and Carolina has been miserable the past two weeks but…well Carolina has been miserable the past two weeks. They’re not an awful team (although their defense is), but with Cam Newton at the helm and a healthy DeAngelo Williams, they’re better than what they’ve been. And they did nearly beat the World Champs last week. Now they’re getting points at home against a Saints team that has been pitiful on the road this year. Sure, the Saints aren’t as bad as we thought. But are they as good as we thought in the preseason? They’ve been better after the bye, but the defense is still bad. Mark Ingram will help some, but after an ego-inflating win over the Packers, they may come out flat. This is a huge divisional game so neither of these teams will be looking ahead to next week, but I have to pick Carolina (who I ironically have picked all of their games incorrectly this year ATS; something’s gotta give).
Bet $20, win $21; Bet $100, win $104.99
Jaguars (+17) over BENGALS, Confidence Rating: 4/5
Why, Jaguars why! Why do you have to be so bad! They couldn’t cover last week against Miami, but mainly because they suffered through a pair of Blake Bortles pick sixes. This team probably isn’t as bad as many think. Even with all of the interceptions, Bortles is improving a little every week. Also, Jacksonville seems to have found its feature running back in Denard Robinson. Coming off that rough loss to Miami, they have to go to Cincinnati. But this is a trap game for the Bengals, sandwiched between a huge close win against Baltimore and a Thursday night divisional contest with the Browns. The Bengals are in a pretty bad spot here, but I still have worries when trusting these Jags. That’s why I liked the teased line (17!). If Andy Dalton doesn’t have A.J. Green again, that could give them even more issues.
49ERS (-4) over Rams, Confidence Rating: 4/5
I had a quick tussle with this game before I gave in to the Niners. I like them coming off a bye, and this is the part of the season where they start to kick it into gear and rack up some wins. They’ve had two weeks to let the Broncos loss sink in so they should be sharp. At first, I thought the Rams would play them close, like they usually do. But then I remembered a few things. First, they just got whipped in Arrowhead, taking away some of the good will from their victory over Seattle. Second, Austin Davis is still the quarterback, and he hasn’t really figured out how to put together a full 60 minutes of quality football. And third, despite being down big early, San Fran came back and blew out the Rams when these teams met a few weeks ago. I know it’s a divisional game, but the 49ers should be focused enough to cover the teased line.
Buccaneers (+12.5) over BROWNS, Confidence Rating: 3.5/5
The Browns covered a big line against the Raiders last week, while Tampa lost an ugly one to the Vikings, so I have my doubts. But lets not forget how ugly the Browns looked before they got the hapless Raiders. I mean, they got blown out by the Jaguars. I still don’t trust Cleveland’s vanilla team, while Mike Glennon’s arm has the potential to connect with Vincent Jackson on big plays, among others. The Bucs are coming off a loss so maybe they’ll show some fight (then again, maybe they won’t) and Cleveland just won big, while they have to look forward to a Thursday night date with Cincinnati. I cringe a bit when I say it, but I’ll take Tampa Bay with all those points.
Two-team teaser: Bet $20, win $18.18; Bet $100, win $90.90
Three-team teaser: Bet $20, win $32; Bet $100, win $160
PANTHERS over Saints, Chargers over DOLPHINS, PATRIOTS over Broncos, Jets over CHIEFS
Cam has come up big in big games recently. I think he’s got what it takes to beat the Saints in a crucial divisional battle…I flip flopped on the Chargers and Dolphins, but I think San Diego is due, while Miami is coming off a blowout win. I know the Chargers are traveling across the country but they got a few extra days rest this week…I like the Patriots this week but it’s really hard to bet against Denver. Still, with Tom Brady getting points in New England, it’s not a bad idea to take a stab at this one…This was the last selection and I made it for two reasons: First, the high line helps the value of this parlay and second, I had no clue who else to take. The Jets are in a good spot after being embarrassed and switching quarterbacks, while the Chiefs are getting praised by the media and might fall flat. Maybe New York ends it’s winning streak in Arrowhead, but I wouldn’t blame you if you took a three-team parlay here.
Moneyline payouts not available yet