Well I guess the bird was the word last week. Sorry for the horrible puns, but the Eagles and Cardinals helped make my Five Star Bets look good, despite most people not being on them. My teasers didn’t go so well however, as the home dogs did not work out. So in lieu, of another week that had its ups, but some downs as well, I’ve decided to publish my column later on in the week so I could get a better feel for the games and the lines.
And it seems like it’s working. I feel a lot more confident about my picks this week, and with it being Week 7 already, a lot more confident about my understanding of NFL teams and trends. With that being said, I bring you Week 7 in all of it’s glory.
Five Star Bets
JAGUARS (+5.5) over Browns, Confidence Rating: 4.5/5
I know it’s dangerous to bet on poisonous teams, and the Jaguars may be one of them (although they did cover last week), but there comes a certain point in the season where the poison label isn’t as important as how great of a spot a specific team is in. And the Jaguars are in quite the spot. They’re coming off a close loss and Cleveland is coming off a blowout win with everyone in the media talking about how good they are. Their egos may all be as big as Johnny Manziel’s now as they could overlook Jacksonville, who is getting 5.5 (!) points at home. With Blake Bortles under center, this team has a chance to be competitive, especially against a Browns team that has now become overrated. Sure, they’re decent and should contend for a playoff spot, but aside from their run game, there’s nothing here to inspire me to give them the nod with all those points. The defense is not good and Brian Hoyer is as unspectacular as he is efficient. It’s always good to go against the public, who have fallen in love with the Browns.
Giants (+6.5) over COWBOYS, Confidence Rating: 4/5
Here we go again. You tried to fool me last week Cowboys…going out and not only covering against the Seahawks, but also winning. As a Cowboys fan, I thought I knew this team, but apparently, I was wrong. They’re much better than expected, and I see no issue in them being favored by more than three points at home to the Giants, who they’re better than (for now at least). However, 6.5 points is too much given the spot they’re in. Last week, Dallas did something amazing, winning in Seattle, and they must have felt like they won the Super Bowl. New York, who is also heading to a bye next week, got blown out by the Eagles and is looking for revenge. NFC East matchups are always dogfights, and they Giants have a great shot to win this game, and an even better shot to cover. With Doug Free out, the impenetrable offensive line has hit a snag, and look for Jason Pierre-Paul to (unfortunately) take advantage of it.
Both bets: Bet $20, win $19.04; Bet $100, win $95.23
Seahawks (-1) over RAMS, Confidence Rating: 5/5
There it is…a golden 5/5 confidence rating. I hope my over confidence in this teased line doesn’t lead to my downfall. Look, I understand that it’s a road divisional game for Seattle, but they’re playing a far inferior team in St. Louis, and they just lost at home. The champs are hungry for some revenge. The defense shouldn’t have much of an issue of keeping Austin Davis and his crew in check, and the offense should get much pressure from a Rams D that has only one sack all season (WTF). All the Seahawks have to do is win by two in a teaser. Just because it’s obvious doesn’t mean you should stray away from it.
Chiefs (+10) over CHARGERS, Confidence Rating: 4.5/5
I was tempted to pick this game straight up because of how good of a spot the Chiefs are in, but because it’s the Chargers in San Diego, I’ll settle for the teased line. Kansas City is coming off a bye in a game that they absolutely would love to have, being that they’re 2-3 and already well behind the 5-1 Chargers. Meanwhile, San Diego just came off a late win against the hapless Raiders that showed us they are vulnerable, and should be looking forward to their colossal battle next week in Denver, which by the way, is on a Thursday night. If you’ve been reading this column, you know teams don’t tend to cover when they play the next Thursday. If you haven’t been, well, thanks for reading now. Hope you come back next week. What Phillip Rivers and this offense have done this year has been remarkable, but the Chiefs are a very solid team, and you shouldn’t bet against Andy Reid coming off a bye, especially when he has Jamaal Charles on his side.
Niners (+12.5) over BRONCOS, Confidence Rating: 4.5/5
Yeah, I understand the risk of betting against Denver at home, but San Francisco is a good team, and I think people tend to forget that from time to time. The Niners will be raring to go to prove themselves in the prime time battle, while the Broncos may be looking ahead to Thursday to their divisional tilt against San Diego. This isn’t a good spot for Peyton Manning, who looked uncomfortable against a legit Jets D last week, and he gets another one here. The Niners play well on the road, and being that they’re getting 12.5 points in this and also heading into a bye, they shouldn’t have much of an issue covering.
EDITORS NOTE: Ok, so I REALLY like the teaser this week. All three teams are in great spots. Surely, one of them is going to screw up, but if there was ever a week to trust me on a teaser, this is the one.
Two-team teaser: Bet $20, win $18.18; Bet $100, win $90.90
Three-team teaser: Bet $20, win $32; Bet $100, win $160
Chiefs over CHARGERS, JAGUARS over Browns, NINERS over Broncos, Dolphins over BEARS
I touched on three of these game before but I’ll go over them briefly again. The Chiefs are a lot better than I expected them to be this year, and they’re really in a great spot, can’t repeat that enough. They’ll want this one bad in SD…I’m a little wary on picking the Jaguars to actually win a game, but now’s as good a time as ever. Maybe Bortles shows flashes of why he was the No. 3 pick in the draft…Couldn’t you see Jim Harbaugh coming into Denver and stealing a win? After last week in Seattle, we saw no team is invincible, and that there’s quite a bit of parity, at least among the top teams…Chicago must been feeling pretty good about winning in Atlanta last week and they may overlook the Dolphins because they go to Foxboro next week. Meanwhile, Miami just lost a heartbreaker and will be looking to bounce back. Both of these teams are pretty even, and the Dolphins are actually kind of better on the road than in home, so it wouldn’t shock me at all if they can pull off the “upset.”
Bet $5, win $363.94; Bet $10, win $727.89; Bet $20, win $1,455.78