A successful week has been had, gamblers. Both of my Five Star Bets came to fruition (as my Cowboys still pulled out a win with a Texans’ backdoor cover), while two of my three teasers were on point (I mentioned the Jets could implode….that was tough to watch). Of course, that doesn’t give me any time to rest, as a very tough week is up ahead.
There’s a lot of home dogs this week, making it very difficult to feel all too confident about a bunch of these picks. If there was a week to throw some teasers or moneyline parlays out there, this is the one. But for now, there’s only one thing I can say for my Five Star Bets: Give ’em the bird.
Five Star Bets
CARDINALS (-3.5) over Redskins, Confidence Rating: 4/5
This is a tricky game due to the uncertainty at quarterback. If Logan Thomas is forced to play, I reserve the right to change this pick. But if Drew Stanton or Carson Palmer at the helm, this is a more talented team that Washington that plays very well at home. This game doesn’t have a ton to do with the spot here. Arizona should be fired up coming off a blowout loss, and while Washington lost too, because the Cardinals are better, I expect them to respond stronger. The payouts for this game are still unknown because of the QB issue, but if Stanton or Palmer is healthy enough to play, take the birds. With just a win over Jacksonville this year, it looks like Kirk Cousins and the Redskins are probably one of the worst teams in the NFL.
(Line still off the board)
EAGLES (-3) over Giants, Confidence Rating: 4/5
Let me start this off by saying, I’m not making this pick because I’m a Giants hater (although I do hate them). This line opened up at -2.5, meaning on a neutral field, the oddsmakers thought that the Giants were better than the Eagles, which I don’t think is true. New York has been great these past few weeks, and they’re certainly better than everyone expected, myself included, but I just don’t know if they can handle this explosive Eagles’ offense with the offensive line getting healthier. This game is huge for both sides, so one would think no one is looking ahead to next week. But it’s an important factor to note that the Giants have their second consecutive huge road divisional matchup in Dallas next week, while Philly gets a bye. The Eagles are a little better than the Giants in a little better of a spot, and I think they win a tight one against their divisional rival. It doesn’t help that the Giants will be without running back Rashad Jennings, either.
Bet $20, win $20; Bet $100, win $100
BENGALS (-1) over Panthers, CR: 4.5/5
Panthers coming off a late comeback win, Bengals coming off a blowout loss, that’s the perfect recipe for a successful bet. Combine that with the fact that Cincinnati has played extremely well at home, while Carolina has had some very bad games, and this should be a game the Bengals win no doubt. But Carolina is still tough and has Cam Newton at the helm, so the original line scares me. The teased line is a lot better. Cincinnati’s reputation as one of the better home bets in the NFL has me hoping on these cats instead of the ones from Carolina.
BUCCANEERS (+9) over Ravens, CR: 4/5
Tampa Bay showed us the past two weeks with a late win In Pittsburgh and a close overtime loss in the Super Dome that they have veered out of poisonous territory with Mike Glennon manning the controls. It’s no doubt the Bucs have some talent on both sides of the ball, so it’s clear to see Josh McCown was the one holding this team back. Baltimore might not have caught on to this yet, so they could be left open to an upset. Tampa will likely be raring to go in this one after that heartbreaking loss to the Saints, and with their bye in sight next week, they’ll be able to perform well. However, the Ravens are a good team and they’re not in a particularly bad spot, so that’s why I like the teased line here.
VIKINGS (+8.5) over Lions, CR: 4/5
It’s the return of Teddy. Bridgewater will be back this week to try to get revenge off of a terrible loss to the Packers. The Vikings had a couple days to prepare for the Lions, who seem like they may be the same old Lions after their awful loss to Buffalo. Minnesota is actually a decent team with Bridgewater, and it’s looking like the Lions’ offensive dynamic will be different if Calvin Johnson doesn’t play. There’s also question marks surrounding Joique Bell and Reggie Bush, so it remains to be seen if any of them play. If they don’t, it will greatly hurt Matthew Stafford’s game. Take Teddy and take those teased points at home.
Two-team teaser: Bet $20, win $18.18; Bet $100, win $90.90
Three-team teaser: Bet $20, win $32; Bet $100, win $160
VIKINGS over Lions, BUCCANEERS over Ravens, BILLS over Patriots, RAMS over 49ers
We’ve got four home dogs here, so this is a moneyline that, not only has a decent shot, but should also have a nice payout (the Lions/Vikings game is still up in the air based on the status of Bridgewater and Megatron).
I touched on the Vikings and the Buccaneers earlier. Teddy and Glennon seem to be the men for the job on their respective teams, giving them a solid shot at an upset at home with neither of them facing a juggernaut team…The Patriots have to play on Thursday next week, always a bad sign for teams, and if you think their woes are gone, think again. They were impressive against the Bengals, but they still have their holes, most notably on an offensive line that could be beat up by a vaunted Buffalo D. Kyle Orton isn’t awful…Austin Davis is bound to win a game one of these weeks. The Rams always play the Niners close, and I think that St. Louis has a shot to upset San Fran on Monday night. 49ers coming off a close win, Rams coming off a tough loss, it’s not far fetched at all.