Thinking Like Vegas: Week 5

By Joe Caputo

Week 4: 3-2

Overall: 11-6

I did it guys.  It took me 4 weeks, but I hit on the Wacky Parlay.  Despite a mediocre 3-2 Week 4 (yea, still 60%), I was locked in on my moneyline bets.  First, I said this:

Capture

Then, I said this:

Capture

I’m trying to make you guys rich.  Are you listening to me?  Well, maybe you’ll start now.  Here are some Week 5 games to lock in.

GREEN BAY (-9.5) v Minnesota

No, I’m not generally one to lay a line this big, but the Packers are back.  Not only are they a significantly better team than the Vikings, they’ve always owned the Vikings in Green Bay.  The Vikings are coming off a big win at home over Atlanta, and it will be tough to now take that act on the road to the Tundra.  A hobbled Teddy Bridgewater won’t help their case.  The Packers finally played a below-average defense in Week 4, and it showed.  Now, in come the Vikings.  This should be another 30+ point performance by the Pack.  I’m laying the 9.5 with confidence.

My Pick: Packers

CAROLINA (-2.5) v Chicago

This’ll be one that the public is all over.  The Panthers have looked terrible, and although the Bears were beat pretty bad at home last week, a lot of people still have confidence in their offense.  I actually agree with the public here.  I have never wavered in my analysis of Carolina from the get-go; I do not think they are a good team.  I also do not think they present a significant home-field advantage.  The Bears, on the other hand, don’t seem to lose much going on the road.  At this point in the season, I think Chicago is a significantly better, healthier team than Carolina, and I do not believe they should be getting points, regardless of this game’s location.  BTW: the Bears are 0-2 at home and 2-0 on the road this year.  Use that information as you’d like.

My Pick: Bears

NY GIANTS (-4.5) v Atlanta

Wayyyyy to high, eh?  Nah, not really.  The road Falcons have given me nothing so far.  They’ve shown me nothing to believe in them.  The Giants, on the other hand, dare I say, look good?  Their defense is playing well, Manning seems to be clicking in this new offense.  Why is the public backing Atlanta!?  Why would anyone back Atlanta!?  Remember last time Matt Ryan visited the Giants?  Yea, didn’t turn out too well.  I’ll lay the points with the G-Men, contrary to what you might be inclined to do when first laying your eyes on this line.

My Pick: Giants

DALLAS (-6) v Houston

Hold on, let me check the last time the Cowboys won 4 games in a row.  Gimme a sec…. Still looking…. HOLD ON A SECOND OK!?  Oh, got it!  2011.  Ok, fine.  It’s not that long ago.  Last time they covered the spread 4 straight games?  Who the hell knows.  That is what you would be asking them to do if you bet them this week.  Also, not only are they coming off three straight victories, but the most recent was a gigantic home win over New Orleans.  And next week’s game?  At Seattle. Trap!  Trap!  They’ve officially been put on Joe’s Week Upset Alert.  Teams on that list are just 1-1 this season, winning by an average margin of… 0.  I got the Texans outright in this one.

My Pick: Texans

SAN FRANCISCO (-6) v Kansas City

Dare I say… The Niners are back?  Well, at least their defense looks like it is.  They absolutely stifled the high powered Eagle attack and held them to… Zero points?  Now, they get this Kansas City team, flying high on a short week after blowing out New England at home.  You think their heads have come out of the clouds yet?  You think they’ll come out before gametime Sunday?  I don’t.  Remember something else here:  Jim Harbaugh essentially made Alex Smith.  Advantage: Harbaugh, no?  I got the Niners winning big in this one.

My Pick: 49ers

SAN DIEGO (-6.5) v NY Jets

Yea, you’re right.  A lot of big lines this week.  Am I really gonna do it?  Am I really gonna take the Jets for the 3rd week in a row?  Well, you know what they say about at first not succeeding.  I’m just not sold on how much longer San Diego can carry this streak.  Don’t get me wrong,  I like the Chargers, but this seems to me like a regression game for both squads.  The Jets have been getting a lot of bad luck, the Chargers a lot of good.  Turnovers tend to even out to a certain extent over the course of a season.  I like the Jets to, at very least, cover this game.

My pick: Jets

WACKY PARLAY

Could I make it 2 straight?  We’ll see.  This is a tough task this week without my usual home dogs to bank on.  But take the moneylines of:

Texans, Bears, and Jets

$10 bet pays $246

SURVIVOR

Used: Eagles, Packers, Patriots, Colts

Week 5: 49ers

Good luck!

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