What the Regression Monsters Have in Store

The Mercy Rule

If you’ve read my baseball stuff in the past, listened to me on my podcast “Sports Brunch with Chris and Joe,” or just had a casual conversation with me you know how big of an advanced stat guy I am.  Well I’m here today to hopefully bring some of you to my side and show you how wonderful, exciting, predictive, and interesting advanced statistics really are.

Let me begin with a quick quiz: define regression.

I bet most of you think you know the definition, but missed a very important aspect.  Regression is in no way a negative term.  Although most of the time it is used it has a negative connotation, regression is simply defined as the phenomenon that if a variable is extreme on its first measurement, it will tend to be closer to the average on its second measurement (thanks Wikipedia).  To put this into everyday terms, if…

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